info@institute.global, Copyright © November 2018 by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. Such backing needs to be responsive, work to leaders’ goals and agendas, and help them fix their priority problems while accounting for their hectic work routines and political and institutional challenges. Meles and his inner circle set agricultural transformation as a top priority—in their mindset, not merely in strategy documents—starting with investment in sesame and cut flowers for export. setting a clear vision for agricultural transformation; charting a strong dynamic strategy that is well prioritised and sequenced; setting targets and remaining focused; and. For our empirical work evaluating readiness factors, we had to first measure when countries were moving through agricultural transformations and when they were stalling or slowing down. Lant Pritchett, Kunal Sen and Eric Werker (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017). Particularly in competitive clientelist political settlements, but also in dominant-party systems that depend likewise on patrimonialism, the way that politicians—the people who ultimately have to lead an agricultural transformation agenda—secure their political survival is by appeasing their clients and patrons. This creates relatively poor incentives for politicians if power brokers have funded or supported their political campaign. The other is the institutional capacity of governments and other elite organisations, which often have a low level of skills, systems and structures—the three elements needed for coordination and policy implementation. Two particular initiatives were the Rwandan Land Policy in 2004 and the Crop Intensification Programme in 2008.57The Crop Intensification Programme was launched in 2008 with the main goals of increasing agricultural productivity in high-potential food crops and ensuring food security and self-sufficiency. “Art of Delivery”, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. Agricultural transformation in Africa, and hence the achievement of the CAADP and Malabo Declaration targets, can happen only if governments take the lead and drive a transformation agenda based on a visionary and cohesive national strategy. Funding from external sources was aligned with the government’s agenda. Building the management capacity of economically competitive cooperatives and farms is also important. They do not necessarily indicate that agricultural transformation happened there. Working with the support of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the McKinsey Center for Agricultural Transformation identified a set of “transformation readiness factors”—institutional, organizational, and political components that underlie successful agricultural transformations. None of these countries has achieved agricultural transformation over the past ten years, suggesting that reliance on extractives is an important factor in holding back Africa’s economic transformation. The leadership of the government is a big part of the elites—and among the most important. Food security is not a viable social objective unless it is also a profitable undertaking for input suppliers such as fertiliser and seed dealers, farmers who grow the crops and the traders, processors, wholesalers and retailers who market the output. People living in the countryside comprise considerably more than … He understood the power of vision and grand plans and was not one to get stuck on details. addisstandard 2020-12-10 Panelists, including Dr Mandefro Nigussie, left, presenting the overall performance of ATA over the past 10 years. These are critical moments in building political capital for agricultural transformation and in securing government alignment and coalescing around the transformation plan—moments that work out rather differently without the right data and analysis presented in the right way. Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian, “From ‘Hindu Growth’ to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition”, National Bureau of Economic Research working paper 10376, March 2004, https://www.nber.org/papers/w10376.pdf. One is the political economy, with its entrenched patronage networks and the demands and incentives it places on politicians. In short, they can deliver Africa’s overdue agricultural revolution. Strong visions and strategies can emerge in each context, but implementing them requires very different approaches, time horizons and expectations. This is what Morocco, Ethiopia and countries in Asia—such as Cambodia, China, India, Thailand and Vietnam—did. Agricultural Transformation Xinshen Diao, Jed Silver and Hiroyuki Takeshima (International Food Policy Research Institute) February 2016 Background Paper for African Transformation Report 2016: Transforming Africa’s Agriculture Joint research between African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET) and The Agricultural sector is made up of four sub-sectors: Crop Production, … Countries that have strong capacity at the centre of government to organise, coordinate and build political cohesion within the government, as in Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and Senegal, will find it easier to drive an agricultural transformation agenda. They seek them out in the shed, where they know they are stored, and take them to the garden to help them with their tasks. Together, these elements ensured the plan set Morocco on a path to securing agricultural transformation, boosting agricultural productivity, added value and employment, and helping to reduce poverty.55Abdelmajid Saidi and Mohammed Diouri, “Food self-sufficiency under the Green-Morocco Plan”, Journal of Experimental Biology and Agricultural Sciences 5 (2017): 33–40. Second, the strategy worked in both an economic and a political sense. This is illustrated in the framework by movement in individual metrics on a scale from low performance (red) toward high performance (green); gray indicates the absence of data. Sorry, an error occured during your newsletter subscription. The Africa Agriculture Status Report 2018 discussed several tools that can be used to target and maintain focus, such as developing a fit-for-purpose coordination and delivery mechanism, for example through value chain–specific working groups chaired by a senior government champion. It is about effecting positive change through statutory responsibility. It included providing full-time technical support and coordination from within the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning and the cabinet’s adoption of a flexible and dynamic model. Status Quo Over 3 billion people lived in rural areas in 1997. That is because unfortunately, champions and leaders have the challenge of needing to convince resource owners—who include other parts of the government, development partners, businesses and civil society—that resources should be aligned to the agricultural transformation strategy of the government. It is worth noting that there are many indicators related to agricultural transformation that are not included in this set. Cambodia and Malawi opted for a Trade Sector–Wide Approach centred on an agriculture-based National Export Strategy to run a series of public-private dialogue working groups.20Kate Bird, Tali Diamant, Ursula Grant and Kate Higgins, “An integrated approach to Aid for Trade: Cambodia Trade Sector Wide Approach”, Case Study by Overseas Development Institute, 2019, https://www.odi.org/publications/4532-integrated-approach-aid-trade-cambodia-trade-sector-wide-approach-swap. The approach was called Agricultural Development-Led Industrialisation.10Shiferaw, “Productive Capacity and Economic Growth in Ethiopia”. duce food and partly by changes. To accommodate shifting demand and respond to changes in the political and economic context, the ATA has a nimble and results-oriented structure that enables it to reorganise its areas of intervention and teams to respond quickly to emerging needs or new priority areas.48“Ethiopia Agriculture Transformation Agency Annual Report 2016–2017”, Ethiopian Agriculture Transformation Agency (EATA), 2017. The objectives were to increase the pace of project implementation, improve coordination, reduce transaction costs by sharing functions and retain experienced staff who previously would seek opportunities elsewhere once the individual projects ended. Digging deep to understand these dynamics and help value-adding actors to succeed and non-engaged businesses to find their entry point can be essential. Clearly prioritised value chains therefore serve as a basis for champions of agricultural transformation to drive the coordination of these agencies and of development partners. Lant Pritchett and Eric Werker, “Developing the Guts of a GUT (Grand Unified Theory): Elite Commitment and Inclusive Growth”, Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Centre working paper 16/12, 7 December 2012, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2386617. “Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP)”, Office of the United Nations Special Adviser on Africa, http://www.un.org/en/africa/osaa/peace/caadp.shtml. Lant Pritchett, Kunal Sen and Eric Werker (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017). The emergence of, and the provision of strategic and flexible support to, political champions and leadership is essential because transformation is not automatic. Although Transformation was only formed in 2017, the firm plans to launch a global investment syndicate to address global agricultural issues. In summary, the 25 metrics we tracked for Ethiopia in the early stages of its transformation offer important insights about the country’s readiness—how the country changed political, institutional, and organizational aspects to create a good foundation for its policies and public investments. Rule of law is important to ensure consistency for business. Few countries have industrialized without first modernizing their agriculture sector. The third component is the tool shop. Numerous studies have found a positive correlation between education and agricultural productivity.38Atal Bihari Das and Dukhabandhu Sahoo, “Farmers’ educational level and agricultural productivity: a study of tribals of KBK districts of Odisha”, International Journal of Education Economics and Development 3, no. What is agricultural transformation. 9 (2015): 1951–1960. This can allow supporters to appropriately understand a leadership’s ability to adopt a strong vision and strategy for agricultural transformation, and hence to devise a suitable approach to helping these countries. This was a politically astute combination of food-security crops and higher-value export crops.58Jean-Marie Byakweli and Fred Golooba-Mutebi, “Drivers of success for CAADP implementation: Rwanda case study”, report prepared for Firetail, 2013, https://www.firetail.co.uk. 2 (2012): 12–23. This also means being in touch with data and analysis producers to be aware of what new data sets and methodologies are available, and then synthesise and present this information to leaders and champions who are mostly too busy to keep abreast of it. Economic, and hence agricultural, transformation can be undermined by stiff competition among multiple strong factions excluded from the government and by limited enforcement capabilities due to strong factions in the government.34Ibid. Third, it is important to think of a place where champions and leaders in government can access or learn about data and analysis they were not previously aware of, bearing in mind that politicians often do not have the time to go looking for these tools. In part, this often has political roots too. This compares with 17 per cent in Malawi and Tanzania, and 8 per cent in Angola and Liberia. It is only in this way that local and foreign proponents of agricultural transformation can help heads of state and government to act more like economists and technocrats in their policymaking. Yet there is still a long way to go to secure continent-wide transformation. For example, a strategy that needs reliable energy to be provided to a hub of agro-processing activity, such as an agro-pole, and for rural roads to be built there, when the ministries of energy and rural infrastructure are prioritising energy access and rural roads in other parts of the country, is not well prioritised and robust. A new agricultural transformation project will soon commence in St. Catherine, as the Government aims to create more wealth among local farmers. Otherwise, a rigidly applied model risks making it harder for champions to be targeted and focused. It began when hunter-gatherer groups in Mesopotamia and in the New World started to settle in single places instead of continuously roaming in search of food. Sunil Sanghvi, Rupert Simons and Roberto Uchoa, “Four lessons for transforming African agriculture”, McKinsey, April 2011, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/four-lessons-for-transforming-african-agriculture. Najib Akesbi, “A new strategy for Moroccan agriculture: The Green Morocco Plan”, New Medit 11, no. In the same way, data and analysis are useful only when they help government champions and leaders to solve the problems they face on a particular day, or in a particular month. To understand what makes a country ready to implement a good agricultural transformation plan, McKinsey mapped dozens of historical cases of agricultural transformations (both successes and failures), synthesized a broad range of expert opinions, and evaluated hundreds of possible metrics. This is because these features are critical for magicians to compete effectively. World Food Programme (WFP), “Zero Hunger,” wfp.org. The elites’ ability to do this will determine the robustness of a country’s agricultural transformation strategy. The reality is frequently that their few best people—and even they themselves—get stuck doing basic administrative work that needs to be done but should not be taking up their time at the higher echelons. The core of this report was first published in the Africa Agriculture Status Report 2018. The second way to foster long-term readiness for transformation is to support small and medium-sized enterprises to grow through targeted business-development services and tailored financing. And how can governments better interact with value-chain actors, including the private sector? Such presentations are often required at short notice. This may happen when interventions are designed based on what implementing partners think a country needs, rather than on what the government leadership thinks it needs, to secure agricultural transformation. To succeed, they need strong partners willing both to invest in the industry and to support leaders to drive reforms across the continent. Most transformations fail. But the elites also include groups of people who, either now or in a close future, can influence policymakers and the agriculture sector. For example, in Rwanda it may be valuable to treat value-adding micro and small businesses as catalytic players that receive significant support, despite their limited size, because they can be the basis to enhance agriculture value chains. If the centre of government prioritises neither agriculture nor another inclusive economic sector (like manufacturing or tourism), this does not mean that local and foreign proponents of agricultural transformation should abandon efforts to help governments secure that transformation. Reflecting on the lessons of the pilot phase, the government adopted a more coherent approach. how providers of support can be context led; how to secure government championing and leadership; how to set a strong dynamic strategy that is well prioritised and sequenced; how to target interventions and remain focused; and. Never miss an insight. It is crucial to find a compromise between political expediency and a solution that will leave a lasting impact from a technical standpoint. Agricultural transformation is multi-sectoral, because it requires the development of entire value chains and market systems that can provide strong livelihoods, often to most of a country’s population. Yet one of the biggest challenges that champions and leaders of agricultural transformation in governments face is accessing data and analysis when they need it. PIATA is a unique strategic partnership launched in 2017 that enables African agriculture actors to do business differently as they support leaders to drive an inclusive agricultural transformation. Agricultural transformation is difficult. Overall, these dynamics and others characterize agricultural transformation and can help us track a country’s progress. These include, for example, improving transportation infrastructure or raising literacy rates. As background, Exhibit 2 shows a timeline of major events in Ethiopia’s transformation pathway since the early 1990s. This serves a critical purpose: it connects the gardener, in a timely manner, to the tools on the days they are needed. This is essential for the level of policy coherence that agricultural transformation needs. Hence too many Africans still struggle to put food on the table, and many more do not receive the nutrients they need, leading to wide-scale stunting. Just because countries sign up to CAADP or elites believe in the potential of agriculture does not mean that it will necessarily take place. One scenario is a development coalition. Berhanu, “The political economy of agricultural extension in Ethiopia”. The continent has most of the world’s exploited arable land, over half of the population is employed in the sector, and agriculture is the largest contributor to Africa’s total gross domestic product (GDP).2“FAO Statistics”, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), accessed June 2018, http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data. Rural wages generally increase as rural transformation occurs (although there are many factors contributing to this). Author: C. Peter Timmer, Harvard University and ANU. Donors can also employ the framework to improve the dialogue they have with country leaders as well as the potential for collaboration. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more, Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it, Inspire, empower, and sustain action that leads to the economic development of Black communities across the globe. Windows of opportunity to drive an agricultural transformation agenda open and close, allowing the process to accelerate, decelerate, start or end. Shiferaw, “Productive Capacity and Economic Growth in Ethiopia”. Lars Moller, “Ethiopia’s great run: The growth acceleration and how to pace it”, World Bank, 2012, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/693561467988949839/Ethiopia-s-great-run-the-growth-acceleration-and-how-to-pace-it. The interaction of these players determines the actions, programmes, projects and reforms pushed by governments and elites in relation to the agriculture sector. This is why the Institute partnered with the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) to conduct research that was published in the Africa Agriculture Status Report 2018.7“Africa Agriculture Status Report 2018”, AGRA. Agriculture is the art and science of cultivating the soil, growing crops and raising livestock. He rode on the back of a general sense among stakeholders in the sector of the need to do things differently. Building on this, the following two categories include factors that influence the potential speed, path, and sustainability of the transformation. 134 (December 2012): 645–654, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262899644_The_legacy_of_Meles_Zenawi. The presence of our Institute’s long-term embedded advisers in multiple government ministries and agencies, in particular the President’s Office, was an important support structure to the government in achieving this outcome. At the same time, non-agriculture sectors in the economy (for example, manufacturing and service sectors) grow and absorb more labor. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. Kartik Akileswaran, Antoine Huss, Dan Hymowitz and Jonathan Said, The Jobs Gap: How to Make Inclusive Growth Work in Africa, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, 2016, https://institute.global/insight/governance/jobs-gap-making-inclusive-growth-work-africa. Based on this, development partners should help leaders and champions put in place systems and structures they need to manage their politics, to secure economic momentum on the ground and align the implementing partners and resources to their needs. Agricultural transformation has to be led by politicians, so understanding the political context and political economy in which they operate is fundamental. And analysis should be thought through and undertaken together with the champions and their teams, not presented to them as a final product. These two factors determine how big a government’s capacity is to implement the required actions. “How Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda Is Changing the Status Quo”, Ventures Africa, 23 September 2014, http://venturesafrica.com/how-nigerias-agricultural-transformation-agenda-is-changing-the-status-quo/. This again underscores the need to embed agricultural transformation visions and strategies at the centre of government. First, partners should recognise that while government leaders may have a vision, they may be unable to translate it into reality because of limited delivery and coordination capacity in agencies such as the presidency or ministry of finance. Hence leaders made an effort to launch the Agriculture Development Agency as a focused delivery mechanism.53“Agriculture Development Agency”, Government of Morocco, accessed October 2018, http://www.ada.gov.ma/. How can sufficient coordination and alignment take hold? Fred Golooba-Mutebi and David Booth, “Bilateral cooperation and local power dynamics: The case of Rwanda”, Overseas Development Institute, 2013. For example, analysts have contended that unlike the usually hyperbolic vision documents routinely adopted by developing governments and then not used, Rwanda’s Vision 2020 is a real point of reference for ministers and civil servants.61Golooba-Mutebi and Booth, “Bilateral cooperation and local power dynamics”. Ethiopian Agriculture Transformation Agency, accessed June 2018, http://www.ata.gov.et/. Tony Blair Institute, trading as Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, is a company limited by guarantee registered in England and Wales (registered company number: 10505963) whose registered office is One Bartholomew Close, London, EC1A 7BL. Wienco’s business model was centred on supporting farmers through affordable inputs, extension services and offtake, whereas the rest of the sector was content not supporting smallholder farmers and exporting low-quality cocoa.25“Wienco”, Global Agriculture and Food Security Programme, accessed June 2018, http://www.gafspfund.org/content/wienco. Please try again later. We selected ten metrics to measure government commitment, the government’s capacity to follow through on its commitments, and its ability to modify its strategies and implementation approach as an agricultural transformation moves ahead. in the developed countries. To meet the criteria for a well-prioritised and robust strategy, the recommended approach is one that prioritises a few value chains. The country’s economic growth therefore But so too is coherence in the system, which is why governments need support to coordinate the various ministries and agencies that will drive value chains—such as those that turn a cocoa bean into a chocolate bar. These indicators were selected in full recognition of these constraints, intended not to speak to what needs to be built over time but instead to act as proxies indicating the likely speed and sustainability of a transformation. In such contexts, the appropriate strategy would be to assume a five- to ten-year strategic approach to build a strong enough political constituency for agricultural transformation. Some countries have also set up mechanisms to successfully implement these plans. Africa’s leadership is heading in the right direction. To make headway in addressing this, it is first important to be clear about what government vision and strategy are, and what they are not. We do this through developing policy and advising governments. Nelson Kanneh, “Final review report of the Liberia Agricultural Sector Investment Plan 2010–2015”, 2017. 9 (2015): 1951–1960. In India, for example, McKinsey research suggests that addressing key agriculture sector constraints could create an increase in agricultural output of $175 billion and an 85 percent average increase in farmers’ incomes by 2025.2 2.Lutz Goedde, Avinash Goyal, Nitika Nathani, and Chandrika Rajagopalan, Harvesting golden opportunities in Indian agriculture: From food security to farmers’ income security by 2025, McKinsey & Company, July 2017. As new information emerges about what is going well and what is not, as more is learned about the nature of the problems that need to be fixed, as economic conditions change, and as political imperatives and pressures evolve, the strategy must also evolve. It is widely recognised that for African countries to achieve agricultural transformation, governments need a strong vision and a prioritised strategy with clear and successful flagship programmes. The metrics measuring our readiness factors were selected with extensive expert consultations in combination with research into how these metrics changed during successful and unsuccessful periods of transformations in countries. The ATA also created ongoing capacity for performance tracking of the country’s agricultural strategy (indicator 11); improved the consultation process across government, donors, and the private sector (indicator 13); and increased the capacity of ministries to coordinate agricultural policies (indicator 14). Agricultural transformation is more than changes in farming practices. As a result, within an integrated economic transformation strategy, the Government of Rwanda adopted policies and programmes that proposed concrete measures to transform farming practices countrywide from traditional subsistence to commercially oriented agriculture and a focus on higher-value commodity crops. The agricultural transformation agenda of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development is directly building on the Mr. President’s transformation agenda. Output. Data and analysis suppliers include the ecosystem of statistics agencies, statistics departments, universities, agricultural research institutions, businesses and development partners. In our Institute’s experience, this is much harder than it sounds. Golooba-Mutebi and Booth, “Bilateral cooperation and local power dynamics”. Rural Transformation is a process of comprehensive societal change whereby rural societies diversify their economies and reduce their reliance on agriculture; become dependent on distant places to trade and to acquire goods, services, and ideas…. If agriculture is not a priority in a given country, proponents need to accept that the timing may not be right and expectations need to be adjusted. Mushtaq Khan, “Political Settlements and the Governance of Growth-Enhancing Institutions”, School for Oriental and African Studies draft paper in research paper series on growth-enhancing governance, 20 January 2011, http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/id/eprint/9968. Likewise, if the patronage networks are based on an approach to agriculture that favours unsustainable subsidies of imported fertilisers—outside a coherent agricultural transformation strategy—over market system building and transformation, this will make it difficult for governments to transform agriculture. Agricultural transformation is the process of raising a country’s long-term agricultural productivity growth to such a level that it improves the well-being of most of the population, pulling them out of poverty, delivering nationwide food security and setting the country on a clear path to broader economic development and industrialisation. The lack of coordination and coherence between these agencies is a critical reason many countries have failed to transform their agriculture sectors. 4 (2014). Globally, about one in nine people are hungry and one-third of the population suffers from malnutrition.1 1.World Food Programme (WFP), “Zero Hunger,” wfp.org. Fourth is the shed. The scale of the needs in the agriculture sector in absolute terms is daunting enough, even before one sets these needs against the financial and human resources that champions and potential champions of agricultural transformation have available to tackle them. The current application of the CAADP framework implicitly assumes that the elites are committed to agricultural transformation, and that this lies at the heart of the centre of government’s vision. Admasu Shiferaw, “Productive Capacity and Economic Growth in Ethiopia”, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, CDP background paper 34, 2017. As with most development, the question is not what needs to be done, but how. A lack of managerial and communication skills deployed in the right places may prevent the vision from taking hold. Policymakers and their supporters cannot continue to view agricultural transformation as a technical process. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more. This can lead to strong implementation capacity in the short term, but the long-term stability of the agenda is at risk because the ruling coalition is typically not inclusive. 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